淡江大學_全球政治經濟學系

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Title原住民政治版圖的持續與變遷：1992-2008立委選舉的總體資料分析

Year100

Semester1

Publish Date2011/11/01

Journal Name原住民政治版圖的持續與變遷：1992-2008立委選舉的總體資料分析

Journal Name OtherThe Change and Continuity of Aboriginal Electoral Politics: An Analysis of the Aggregate Data of Indigenous Legislative Elections Results (1992-2008)

All Author包正豪

Unit淡江大學全球政治與經濟學系

Publisher臺北市：政治大學選舉研究中心

Volume選舉研究=Journal of Electoral Studies 18(2)，頁87-120

Summary本文摘要本文以 1992到 2008年間 6屆立委選舉的得票資料來探究國內主要政黨的原住民選票分布情形，並同時以區位推論方法來估計得票穩定程度與其流向，以嘗試釐清影響國內主要政黨於原住民立委選舉當中的得票差異與穩定情形的原因，同時將更進一步闡述原住民政治版圖的持續與變遷對國內政黨體系發展的影響為何？研究結果顯示，國民黨在原住民選民內所獲得的選舉支持並未若想像中穩固。國民黨相當一部分的選舉支持植基於地方型政治人物的地盤選票，當此類政治人物與國民黨的結盟關係破裂，即導致國民黨社會支持的衰退，與政黨體系的重組。換言之，原住民選舉研究若以政黨為分析對象，而忽略地方型政治人物的組織力量的話，或將導致對原住民政治的認知偏誤。;Abstract This research analyzes the aggregate data of indigenous legislative election results (1992-2008) to figure out the indigenous vote distribution and to discuss the reasons to cause the electoral stability and change by using the cross-level inference method. The research findings show that the KMT does not enjoy a stable support from Taiwan’s indigenous electorate. A certain part of the KMT’s electoral support is based on local politicians’ personal votes. Once the alliance between the KMT and local politicians is broken, the KMT’s electoral support will be immediately shrunk. In other words, political students who study Taiwan’s aboriginal electoral politics should regard not only political parties but also local politicians as research units. In fact, in order to have profound understandings about aboriginal electoral politics, this research suggests a new perspective, by using local politician’s personal votes as a breakthrough point, to do the researches.

Keyword原住民;個人選票;立委選舉;跨層次推論

Use LangChinese

ISSN(ISBN)1025-7551

Journalnature國內

Level,TSSCI

UniversityCooperation

CorrespondingAuthor

Reviewsystem否

Country中華民國

Open Call for Papers

PublicationStyle紙本